You make a curious comment at the end, that cost rental "when it reaches scale, will exercise a price dampening effect on the wider market." Surely this should be "if" it reaches scale? The current target is for 18,000 by 2030, and even that scale of delivery doesn't seem to be on track yet. Is that really enough to dampen prices to any significant degree?
The cost rental we're currently planning is, frankly, a niche tenure and a quite small portion of new housing, not the kind of transformation that seems to be assumed in e.g. the latest Threshold report.
Thanks Killian, and yes that is a very valid point. It raises the related question of what scale CR needs to reach to have a transformative impact in terms of the housing system. This is of course not just about the absolute numbers, but where they are located, given housing markets are local. 2030 is only 6 years away, which is very little in the context of a housing system. For CR to have a more systemic impact we probably need to be talking about 2050. But for that to happen the tenure needs to continuously grow through various fiscal cycles and political change, a tall order. I will hopefully have a chance to write about some of those issues in a future post. You are quite right, though, that it is currently a niche tenure.
Very interesting research as ever, thanks Mick.
You make a curious comment at the end, that cost rental "when it reaches scale, will exercise a price dampening effect on the wider market." Surely this should be "if" it reaches scale? The current target is for 18,000 by 2030, and even that scale of delivery doesn't seem to be on track yet. Is that really enough to dampen prices to any significant degree?
The cost rental we're currently planning is, frankly, a niche tenure and a quite small portion of new housing, not the kind of transformation that seems to be assumed in e.g. the latest Threshold report.
Thanks Killian, and yes that is a very valid point. It raises the related question of what scale CR needs to reach to have a transformative impact in terms of the housing system. This is of course not just about the absolute numbers, but where they are located, given housing markets are local. 2030 is only 6 years away, which is very little in the context of a housing system. For CR to have a more systemic impact we probably need to be talking about 2050. But for that to happen the tenure needs to continuously grow through various fiscal cycles and political change, a tall order. I will hopefully have a chance to write about some of those issues in a future post. You are quite right, though, that it is currently a niche tenure.