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You write that "This is not to suggest, I hasten to add, that landlords are not selling – it is simply to say that the data is patchy."

The data is not at all patchy. This is what the RTB said in mid-2021:

"Since the RTB was established in 2004, the number of private tenancies registered with the RTB increased steadily from 83,983 to a total of 319,822 active tenancies at the end of 2016. In recent years there has been a reversal of this trend, with the number falling to 297,837 by the end of 2020."

Multiple reasons for landlords to sell right now including: 1) most are out of negative equity; 2) can take advantage of the CGT exemption for holding for seven years; 3) in ability to achieve market rent due to RPZ restrictions.

As you correctly point out the mortgage-financed flow of new landlords since 2014 has been very small and is clearly not compensating for the landlords who are leaving.

In any case landlords will always sell for all sorts of reasons. This can never be prevented. What is needed is to ensure that enough new landlords arrive to ensure stability in supply. Right now there is very little incentive for new landlords to enter. BTL finance is very expensive, they could be locked below market rents in perpetuity, and for most of them rental profits are taxed at >50%, and capital gains at 33%.

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