New RTB data just out
No major spike in evictions
I wasn’t planning to release a post until I’d finished grading, but the RTB Q4 2025 data just came out. This is especially noteworthy given media reporting in relation to a spike in evictions, likely linked to the new PRS Reforms. What follows is a very brief summary of the key points.
As readers will recall, the Q3 2025 data caused quite a stir because it showed a 35% year-on year increase in Notices of Terminations (NoTs). As I noted at the time, this figure was somewhat misleading as the NoTs in Q3 2024 were particularly low (relatively speaking) at just under 4,000. The Q3 2024 data (5,405) was approximately 1,000 in excess of the longer term average (i.e. the 12 previous quarters, for which we have data), representing a 20% increase on that long term average.
The figure for Q4 2025 is 5,207, so slightly down on the last quarter. It represents a 40% year-on-year increase. Looking at how it relates to the long term average, it represents about an 18% increase on. Once again, NoTs issued on sale of property grounds was about 60% of the total, consistent with the long term average.
So, it looks to me like the new PRS reforms have not produced a tsunami of evictions, but have produced a significant increase. If this increase proves short lived, it will not meaningfully impact the sector (obviously it will impact the effected tenants). Time will tell.
One caveat here is that this data only relates to NoTs registered with the RTB. It therefore does not capture non-compliant landlords. We don’t how many this might be, but I suspect quite a lot.
Finally, a couple of notes on the ‘profile of the register’ data:
Private tenancies are up 1.18% (year on year) to 243,598.
BUT note that this figure (bizarrely) includes cost rental tenancies, which were up 96%. Therefore it is more likely that PRS actually declined moderately. This reading is supported by the fact that Dublin tenancies are up 3.5% (and Dublin is where most cost rental is), while outside Dublin there was a small reduction.
Another important caveat is that the RTB issued 7000 compliance notices for failure to register in 2025. Therefor, some of the new tenancies added in the last quarter may have/are likely to have been previously unregistered tenancies (i.e. don’t actually reflect new supply). I asked the RTB about this at the related webinar but they were not able to estimate to what extent this is the case.
The number of landlords was more or less stable BUT the proportion of tenancies held by landlords with 100+ units is up again and now stands at 15% nationally and an incredible 29% in Dublin.
Thanks for this analysis, Michael. As you pointed out, we’re clearly seeing a significant increase in eviction notices, with the majority issued on the grounds of property sales. Could this be pushing smaller landlords out of the market and potentially leading to longer-term challenges if the sector becomes increasingly dominated by larger, particularly institutional landlords?
Cheers for the essential update as always Michael!