Housing infrastructure & new RTB data

The Week in Housing 16/05/25

In today’s post I provide some brief comments on the recent focus on infrastructure in the housing debate and the latest RTB data.

---

The housing debate seems to have shifted since the new Government, with much of the focus now on infrastructure and its role in housing delivery. The provision of water infrastructure has come in for particular scrutiny, with numerous newspaper articles looking at delays to housing construction in various parts of the country. This is likely to continue as the supply outlook does not look positive. Although it is too early to tell, this may well signal a step change in the nature of housing politics. If that turns out to be the case, we could say that there have been three major phases of housing politics since the post-austerity era:

1. Market optimism (2014 to around 2018): policy in this phase was underpinned by a belief that the market could rebound and start delivering an adequate level of supply once again. Although there were regulatory policies they were generally of limited impact (Alan Kelly’s 2015 ‘rent controls’, which limited rent increases to once every two years), or articulated as temporary measures until the market picked up (the RPZs). Most of the policy intervention was about supporting the market, especially Help to Buy, the introduction of BTR building standards, the establishment of REITs, Strategic Housing Developments, co-living etc.

2. Regulatory housing policy (roughly 2018 -2025): from around 2018 the focus started to shift towards more traditional housing policy measures with a more regulatory, state-provision ethos. Some of the interventions of the previous era fell away (BTR and coliving, for example), and the major new developments involved a shift from market to state. These included much greater investment in social housing, the introduction of cost rental and affordable purchase, the establishment of the LDA and much greater regulation of the PRS (tightening of RPZs, some enhanced security of tenure, much stronger enforcement).

3. The infrastructure turn (from 2025): we may be seeing the focus move away from direct housing policy measures to the ‘scaffolding’ of the housing system, particularly water, energy and transport infrastructure and the area of oversight and coordination.

It’s great to see this new emphasis on infrastructure and coordination and it reflects the report of the Housing Commission’s recommendations. In terms of the politics of this, however, there are some important things to keep in mind. While at first glance big public spending on long term investment should play to the strengths of the left, in practice it tends to produce a lot of headlines on costs and delays. This can undermine general public trust in institutions and suspicion of public spending and taxation, which in the medium term probably disadvantages the left politically. The other political issue here is that this shift towards a focus of the systems within which housing development occurs isn’t just happening in Ireland. It has been the focus of a new debate around what is called an ‘abundance perspective’, most notably in the hugely influential New York Times columnist Erza Klein’s new book. In the Irish context, listen to this brilliant Inside Politics podcast with economist Barra Roantree. Progress Ireland have also been banging this drum.

The basic idea here is that the left over recent decades have spent too much time focused on regulating and otherwise curtailing markets, and not enough time figuring out how to actually get stuff built. Klein and others urge a new focus on turbo charging supply, embracing innovation and not being afraid to cut back on red tape. The innovation is that this is framed in terms of progressive objectives such as increasing equality, quality of life etc. This shift seems to be in step with the shift towards more expansionary fiscal approaches and renewed emphasis on industrial policy within international political economy in both the US and the EU.

Whether this will translate into new approaches to housing supply is hard to tell. It seems difficult to imagine something as complex and slow moving as the machinery of infrastructure investment changing quickly, but if ever there was a time to pursue this it’s now.

In other news, the latest RTB quarterly data is out and I was able to attend their Stakeholder Information Webinar, which was extremely useful. The highlights are:

• Average rents in new tenancies are up 5.3% (compared to an increase of 8.4%) in the previous year. Average rents in existing tenancies are up 4.6% (compared to 6% in previous year). Rental inflation is thus slowing, which is likely the result of the fact that (a) HCPI is down and this brings the level of permitted rent increases in RPZs down; and (b) less new properties (which have much higher rents) coming on stream. Nationally, the average rent in new tenancies is 16.6% higher than in existing tenancies.

• The number of PRS tenancies has once again increased, this time by 4.6% to just over 240,00. The largest change was in Dublin, with an increase of 7.2%. The total number of landlords is also up slightly. It’s amazing that the size of the sector and the number of landlords is increasing despite the fact that every Government politician is convinced that landlords are ‘leaving in droves’, ‘fleeing the sector’, and in a ‘mass exodus’.

• The most interesting thing in relation to the profile of tenancies is the changing composition of landlords. This is the seventh quarter in a row that the number of landlords with one tenancy has fallen and the number of landlords with more than 100 tenancies has increased. This is driven entirely by Dublin. Incredibly, landlords with one property now account for just 22% of tenancies in Dublin, while those with more than 100 account for 25.7%. A truly incredible concentration of the sector in the last decade.

• Finally, in relation to Approved Housing Bodies, the number of tenancies is up 11%. It was especially interesting to see some of the figures for cost rental. The sector now includes 2,414 tenancies, up a massive 185%. Don’t expect this to impact the argument from left politicians that the sector isn’t scaling up rapidly enough, however. Also, keep in mind this is just AHB cost rental tenancies, and therefore doesn’t include the LDA and the Local Authorities (as I’m writing this I’m wondering if the LDA have perhaps set up an AHB to hold their cost rental units - if you know the answer to this please comment below).

Events & news

The next #SimonTalks webinar looks at homelessness in Europe with Ruth Owen, Deputy Director of FEANTSA, on the 26th of May. The next in the webinar series I’m running is on cost rental in Denmark - taking place May 21st (register here). The recording of the first webinar on second hand housing acquisition will be posted on Monday. If you are considering a masters programme, we have three programme’s worth a look at the School of Social Policy, Social Work and Social Justice (UCD): Equality Studies, Gender Studies and the Masters in Public Policy.

What I’m reading

A new report from Focus Ireland on their Youth Family Mediation service. Valesca Lima has a new paper on policy measures to address housing discrimination against migrants on publicpolicy.ie, based on her recent report published by the Housing Agency.